Dear Racing Fan,
My name is Jimmy Welsh and horse racing is by far my
favourite sport and it also supplies me with a fantastic
additional income. It provides an intellectual challenge and has
allowed me the meet some of my best friends. Sixteen years ago,
after reviewing my betting records, I found I was good at
picking winners but was not showing a profit so I decided to
adopt a more professional approach. It has proved very
successful and I have shown a profit in 16 of the last 17 years
and today I am enjoying racing more than ever.
If you are going to become a profitable punter, it's
absolutely necessary to make the distinction between punters who
gamble and those who bet. Gambling is playing games of pure
chance with no possibility of predicting long-term results.
Examples include the National Lottery, Fruit Machines, Casino
games etc. Betting is all about odds. Neither bookmakers nor the
punters know the true odds. Bookmakers and layers are in
competition, so their odds on offer differ and the odds can
change quickly as punters place their bets.
Horse racing gives us the opportunity to assess the odds on
offer and make an accurate assessment of the risk and return
equation and only bet when the return or the likelihood of
success is particularly attractive.
There is now a vast amount of information available to
computer literate punters from which to assess the risk element.
We can use previous results, statistics, trends etc, to enable
us to ascertain which variables work at influencing the results
of races. These variables can then be applied to future races.
How To Make Horse Racing Pay...
1. Create a BETTING BANK.
Before placing a bet set aside a sum of money, which you can
afford and is separate from the remainder of you assets and
create a BANK ACCOUNT solely for betting purposes. I use a
current account. As an example, the account could be £1,000 and
you bet win only singles staking £50 each time. If you double
your betting bank, then double your stake. If and hopefully not,
you half your bank account then half your stake. Following this
method will allow you to sustain any long losing run, however if
you follow my advice or are solely betting my tips then this
should never happen.
2. OPEN as many Telephone and Internet betting accounts as
You have opened your new betting account, now we have to take
advantage of the best prices available, allowing us to beat the
SP and increase profits. Most firms offer early morning prices,
but some Internet companies now offer prices the evening before
racing. You can compare prices using one of the many Odds
Comparison services, competition is so fierce some are offering
best odds guaranteed so if the horse drifts & returns a bigger
sp you get paid at that.
3. Never be scared of a drifter.
If the odds on the horse you're on start increasing or
'drifting' in the morning don't be scared. I know serious
pro-punters who manipulate the morning odds by backing small
amounts on horses they don't fancy but because of who they are
the odds will shorten & this in turn lengthens the price of
their true fancy.
4. SPECIALISE in what you are good at.
With over 8000 races run in the UK each year it's almost
impossible to keep track of all form. After analysing my results
form the previous years and identifying my biggest source of
profits, I decided to SPECIALISE in better class races for older
horses, over 7 furlongs to a mile & a half. The reasons for this
are, you have plenty of information about them, you know what
going they produce their best form on, what distances they
prefer and which type of course suit them. The majority of my
bets are placed during the flat season mainly between late May
and September when the form has settled down and is more
reliable. I check the race types the day before and know how
many races I'm going to study that evening. Another advantage of
specialising is you get to know most horses that will be
competing against each other and under what conditions they
produce their best form & this will give you a vital edge.
5. Allocate RACE ANALYSIS time.
After identifying how many races could provide potential
bets, I allocate half an hour per race each evening for
analysis. I find the Racing Post's site an excellent addition to
my own form book I keep. I always make my selections the evening
before racing as this allows me to get on early the next morning
taking advantage of the bookmakers best prices on offer. Some
people who go racing regularly won't place a bet until they've
seen the horse in the paddock and then on the way to the post.
This is all very well and a safe approach but what is the
point when in the morning you could have got on at 5/1, then it
opens on course at 3/1, may look great in the paddock and on the
way to post, but when you go to place your bet it's 9/4, less
than half the price you could have got in the morning and is now
not a value bet. You might bet less losers but won't make a
profit in the long run doing this.
6. RECORD all your bets
Keep a record of all your bets, without betting records you
will not know whether you are successful or not, even record the
fun bets. It's amazing how these mount up and are unprofitable.
I keep my betting records on a spreadsheet, this performs all
the necessary calculations for me. I personally record as much
detail as possible. By analysing your own betting records you
will soon identify where you are going wrong and what you are
good at and be able to adopt a professional strategy.
7. TOOLS of the Trade
* The Racing Post, daily UK horse racing newspaper.
* The Racing Post online website: racingpost.co.uk
* The Racing Post Weekender, a weekly newspaper which is
published every Wednesday. It previews the weeks racing, with
entries, ratings and statistics. It also includes a collectable
results pullout which I find invaluable.
* Television, watch as many races as you can. You never stop
learning. We have an excellent choice of Channels now, if you
want to take it seriously I suggest you subscribe to both the UK
channels dedicated to horse racing, AtTheRaces and Racing UK.
8. Review each days racing
I am continually updating my list of horses to follow &
watch replays of every race. I used to just be interested in the
final two furlongs but I now know the importance of watching the
whole race. Watch every section of a race as see where a horse
works hardest, it might have ran too fast too soon or has been
asked to make up too much ground. Where there has been a
big draw bias note horses that have not won but ran well from an
impossible draw, I note these a 'outliners' in my list.
Look for horses that have been held up & lead close home
winning by a small margin, they will only be put up a few pounds
in the ratings & check it's breeding to see if it might even
improve for a step up in trip next time. My favourite bet is an
improving three year old who fits this criteria.
Now follow the Rules and you can't lose.
The RULES To WIN The Betting Game...
The evening before racing, when analysing a race I always use
these rules to assist me in making a selection. One variable
remains constant. The horse must be a WINNER. By this I
mean, it has won a race recently, demonstrating that it has the
will to win and in doing so produced a turn of speed, that when
given the same conditions can do it again.
WILL THE HORSE ACT ON THE GOING?
Possibly the most important factor. I find most horses will
only let themselves down and show their best form on certain
types of ground. A horses previous form will tell you want going
it prefers. If however it's lightly raced check its pedigree for
assistance. I carried out research into what going leading sires
offspring have a significant preference for. Remember some
horses, early in their careers, can outclass other horses to win
on going they least prefer, but now they are in their true class
they cannot cope. I prefer to bet when the going is on the fast
side as this is the optimum conditions for horses with the
quickening power I look for, this usually coincides with a long
dry spell. When rain softens the ground it provides less
resistance to the horses' hooves and reduces traction. This
reduces a horses ability to accelerate and reach its maximum
IS THERE A TRACK DRAW BIAS?
Once I have identified what I think is the quickest horse in
the race and the most likely winner of the race, I always check
it's stalls position and if there is a track draw bias. I
carried out research into the UK racecourses. It's not just in
sprint races the draw has an effect, big fields on turning
tracks over any distance can be affected by the draw. It
certainly makes sorting out big field races a lot easier when
you can comfortably rule out a third of the field due to bad
draws. Also on extremes of going, the draw bias can change. I
recommend you regularly check results at each track and watch
for any biases developing. If you can spot these early, this
will give you an edge over everyone else. By reviewing the
results at a track where the bias has a pronounced effect, you
can sometimes spot a horse who has lost but still ran a great
race from an impossible draw 'outliners' and could be worth
following next time around, granted it gets a reasonable draw.
Some sprinters run up a sequence of unplaced efforts despite
running well from bad draws and can pop up at great prices as
they have been underestimated.
This is one area that has changed, racecourses have now far
more advanced watering systems and selective watering can change
from meeting to meeting even the big festivals can change day to
day, check the press releases to find out this information.
HAS IT GOT GOOD TRACK OR SIMILAR TRACK FORM?
Probably the only horse racing analogy to feature in every
day life is 'Horses for Courses'. Horses have marked
preferences, particularly so in National Hunt racing. Some
horses only win going right handed others on tight tracks. In
the UK each track is unique and I have carried out research into
all these racecourses topography.
HAS IT GOT THE CLASS TO WIN?
Every horse has a class ceiling. Just ask yourself how many
horses win in the highest class of race possible, a Group One.
Very few each year. A horse must have shown form in the type of
race it's competing in today, whether it's a Class D
handicap/Group 2/Claimer etc. Some only win when they carry big
weights against inferior opposition in handicaps, some can't
bridge the gap between Group 2 to Group 1. Out with their class
and even receiving weight is not enough to compensate for a lack
of speed. Watch out for horses who can dominate in small fields
but can't handle the hurly burly of a big sized field.
HAS IT GOT FORM OVER TODAY'S DISTANCE?
The horse must have proven it can stay the distance of
today's race. Never rely on speculation that it will stay a
distance if it has never ran over it before. Every horse has
stamina limitations and once they exceed this they have no
strength left at the end of a race to accelerate. My only
exception to this are three year olds who have lead close home
in their previous race & both their breeding & running style
indicate improvement when stepped up in distance.
WHERE IS THE PACE IN THE RACE?
A race with no pace and run at a crawl with a sprint to the
line will produce a freak result. When analysing a race I ensure
the race includes at least one proven front-runner. This horse
must have led or contested the lead in at least 3 races.
IS THE STABLE IN or OUT OF FORM?
Check the trainers tables published daily in the Racing Post
or in other publications, these usually have statistics for the
last 14 days. I place a greater importance if the stable is out
of form. Things can change very quickly and I suggest you check
the results daily, watching closely for any trainer who has had
several well backed horses who have been well beaten within in a
short space of time.
IS THE JOCKEY FAMILIAR WITH THE HORSE?
I would not say this is essential but I think it's an
advantage if today's jockey has ridden the horse before,
preferably winning on it. Horses have different styles of
running, for example some are front runners, some have to ridden
with restraint and come from off the pace so it is a help if a
jockey knows these traits. Confidence is a great thing and you
can check the recent statistics to see which jockeys have a good
record of wins to rides.
HOW MANY DAYS SINCE LAST RUN?
I look for a pattern, some horses need time between their
races and run best fresh while others stay in form only for a
short time of the year. I use a 35 day rule, any absence longer
than this and there might have been a problem. One thing I have
noticed is how well some horses run after a season or more out,
then on their next run they bounce (lose). I tend to be wary of
CHECK THE WEATHER
Always check the weather forecast for the racecourse you are
planning to bet at. In the UK the weather can quickly
deteriorate having a significant effect on the going, one of the
biggest factors in determining the outcome of a race and this
will have to lead to re-evaluation or no bet altogether.
DON'T TAKE ANY PRICE
After analysing the race, you have made your decision, you'll
back what you think will be the winner of a race, take any
price, a winner is a winner. DON'T! Each horse's true chance in
a race cannot be scientifically verified. But you should be more
disciplined, calculate a price you are prepared to take and
don't take anything less. You always hear people talking about
value, but to me there is no way of calculating value. Value is
a matter of personal opinion. A crude method of calculating the
odds you are prepared to take, is to list all the potential
rivals to your selection in the race. If there are only two look
for approximately 3/1, if there are six look for 8s. You will
soon develop your own method and become good at forecast odds.
IN SUMMARY - NEVER BET A HORSE TO DO SOMETHING IT HAS NEVER
Nobody knows if a horse will improve, for example, stepping
up in trip, wearing blinkers for the first time, running on
different going, wearing a tongue strap etc. Stick to what
conditions and equipment the horse has show it's best form in.
If you follow these rules you will become more disciplined,
analytical, bet less and beat the SP, allowing you to make your
betting on horse racing pay. You will also find you enjoy it
more. As mentioned earlier, I strongly recommend specialising in
particular types of races as it's very time consuming analysing
each race, in fact it's impossible to dedicate enough time to
this task. I generally have about 200 bets from March to
November, so be patient, never chase losses and don't bet
when you get an urge, your time will come.
Joining The Shrewd Tipster Service
I've given you the "How To" and the "Rules" for success. What
I can't give you is the natural desire to put in the time and
effort needed. Or to put it another way, most readers want long
term success but their lives are already way too manic to allow
them to succeed to a professional level.
Well if time is the issue but you still want to become a
profitable punter then why not join my brand new "Shrewd
Tipster" service. I've enjoyed profit in 16 of the last 17 years
and now you have the opportunity of a shortcut to success. For a
fraction of the time and effort you can be in the loop on all my
I specialise in the flat and all weather, and compile my own
unique list of horses to follow then sit and wait for them to
appear under the right conditions. Members of the Shrewd Tipster
service will be the only punters with access to this potential
punting gold mine.
Quality over quantity is my betting mantra and I will be looking
to back between 5-7 high quality tips a week concentrating on
the better races.
I also have an interest in several horses and good connections
within yards combined with my own knowledge and form reading
this creates a potent combination.
All you need to do now is choose a membership level that best
suits your time commitment.
Silver, Gold or Platinum...
Silver is a 28 Day Subscription costing £69.00. Gold is a 90
Day Subscription costing £149.00 and Platinum is an
EXTRA SPECIAL DEAL that buys you a 6 month subscription
costing just £249.00!
Obviously I would kindly welcome
you to become a member of "Shrewd Tipster." However if the time
is not right for you then I sincerely hope our time today has in
some way helped you in becoming a more profitable punter.
The Shrewd Tipster
PS. Always Remember - Keep Calm & Beat The Bookie! I do
and so can YOU!